I look at this as partially a question of on-the-road experience, and partially a question of straightforward math.
This graph below is from Ford; it shows maximum torque at 2500 RPM, and rapidly increasing power all the way up to 4500 RPM. In my experience with my 2006 5.4 (8,500 lbs, no trailer) anything above 2,000 RPM is great. Below 2,000 RPM, I can loaf along, but I better get it above 2,000 if I want to do anything more than that.
That motor is fine loafing, but if I want performance, it is really happy between 2,000 and 3,000. If I want to make it roar, I put down the pedal and wind it right on out to 4,500 or 5,000. I haven't pulled a trailer, but I suspect that if I were doing so, I'd want to keep it above 2,000 or 2,200.
I don't have precise data on this yet, but it appears to me that if I'm slightly lugging the motor vs spinning it up a bit, I am not significantly adversely affecting the fuel mileage. It looks to me like keeping the motor in the sweet spot when power is needed--for my current load, that is in the 2,000 to 2,400 range--uses no more gas than trying to get by at a slower spin.
With that in mind, the table below is something that I put together. It shows engine RPM for my 5.4 with different axle ratios and tire sizes, at different speeds and in both 3rd gear and OD.
You can see pretty quickly that if you start with a stock truck--3.73 axle and 245/75R16 (30") tires--and then switch to 285/75R17 (33")tires, you will get very close to the original RPMs if you go to 4.11 gearing. Doing this basically gives you a straight swap.
You can see, however, that this straight swap might not be ideal if you expect to do a lot of towing. At 65 mph in OD, you are at 1,922 RPM--still not in the plus-2000 sweet spot.
If you go to 4.56 gearing, you are up to 2,132 RPM at 65 mph in OD, and if you bump it up to 4.88 gearing, you get to 2,282.
Based on your usage and the math, it looks to me like 4.56 or 4.88 gearing would be better for you than 4.11.
In some of my final conversations with Ramsey, he told me about his experiments with lower ratio gearing. The van he was building at the time of his passing was going to be a 4.88--and I'm virtually certain that he was going with 33" tires for that one. Ramsey really liked how the 5.4 motors run when they spin up. I think he was on to something.
When I did my conversion, I opted for 4.11 axles and 285/70R17 tires. I'm happy with that combination, although if I had unlimited time and money, I'd experiment by swapping back and forth between 4.11 and 4.56 just to see what the differences would be in power and gas mileage.
So--that's the math, and, perhaps, a bit of wisdom from Ramsey. Past that, I think it is a matter of feel and experience, and I think a number of folks have offered some good advice here.
I will be very interested to learn what you decide to do, and how you like it once it is done. Please post back with an update.