Affect of gas prices, inflation, & interest rates for used SMBs & Class B RVs?

[r27d]

Originally Posted by simplesez

"unaffordable"

Maybe I should have said "severely economically disincentivized though legislation and mandates". Sure, someone will always be able to 'afford' something. Just like only some people can 'afford' to fly private today some people will afford to own/drive ICE with the associated taxes, insurance and carbon off-sets, forever.

Personally, I think we're at peak personal vehicle ownership. In the future the majority will not even own electric vehicles. The resources required to replace every ICE car with electric will be too much and we'll have to share.

[simplesez]

It's possible. Everyone I know who has multiple vehicles and homes are both happy to have so many assets and yet burdened that competent and affordable people aren't there to maintain these assets while they work their butts off.

In an urban environment mass transit, bicycles, scooters, and ride sharing are going to continue to be best practices. In a country as widespread as the USA that progress to less reliance on ICE is going to be a challenge especially when the powers at be continue to push for division so they can capitalize on both new and old technology.

I'm still waiting for Star Trek technology. Beam me to where I want to be and I'll bring a backpack sized bag with me. As we found in post 2020 though...where you beam over to recreate likely you will share it with other people...lol

[ctb]

I think that the majority of the 'usual' buyers these last few years will be deterred from buying any RV, motorized or not bc of gas prices and other travel options those folks may have preferred in the first place ie cruises, air travel etc.....but there will always be those with more money than they can use, and those that don't mind spending on 'collectors' rides...that being sd, Field Vans asking such a premium for new rigs, I think the SMB (mainly Ford E series or 'E' cab fronts and Chevy) will have buyers that appreciate its capabilities, looks, and rarity? Either way, still nice to own one eh?

but...the traffic on I-80 west, pulling new trailers from Indy are insane...we travel to Denver often and am so surprised by how many are heading west (still)

[JWA]

Having been through several "gasoline crisis" since the early 70's I'd advise anyone unsure what the future will bring simply sit tight for a short while----this will begin to even out in a relative short while. I've seen a bit of "lower" price-per-gallon come back down from bumping on $4.50/gallon here in central Ohio. its easy enough to find stations selling @3.99/gallon so I'm not sure acting out of panic is the best course.

Without a doubt the automotive market is changing, the advent of hybrid or fully electric vehicles seems to be looming large on the immediate horizon but I don't see it having a huge effect on ICE vehicles, not with the degree which they've dug themselves into the motoring public's have come to rely on them.

I DO see EV's having an impact on smaller ICE or "commuter" vehicles, ones that fully fit into the operating range most claim to have right now. That change would have many of us changing our driving habits, better planning daily trips so we're not making as many "short hops" as we do today.

I'd not buy or sell anything these days based solely on current gasoline prices. We might see the crazy inflated prices of SMB's being tempered a bit but not a full collapse where prices plummet to significant loss of value or selling price.

I don't really know but having been through this sort of thing in the past I'm not as pessimistic as those new to the "gasoline crisis" way of life.

[Lilnuts2]

Fuel prices in the US have been at a ridiculously low price for the last 10 years or so. At the world level we (the largest consumers of oil) have enjoyed prices that are lower then almost every major country in the world. the US ranked 88 out of the150 major countries globally for cost per gallon. About 20% of a gallon of gas in the US is taxes. Canada is 33% most of Europe is in the 60+% bracket India is the highest at 69%.

Americans drive the most miles, have the worse mileage vehicles, own the most vehicles per person. We also have the most stringent emission programs.

Maybe it's time we quite bitchin about paying such a little amount for gas and work on a bigger picture. Like reducing the fuel tax on commercial vehicles which affects everything we touch. better engine technology. EV is not the long term answer.

In the mean time I will pay whatever gas/diesel costs and be glad I live in a country that allows me to make enough money to have a camper van, fuel stations located most everywhere, roads that are good and places to enjoy my camper van.

Maybe I will just stay longer at each stop and drive a little less.

[JWA]

Originally Posted by Lilnuts2

Maybe I will just stay longer at each stop and drive a little less.

To borrow a phrase: "adapt, persevere, overcome...." so I agree with much of your post there Lilnuts2!

With the almost constant conversation about fuel prices in general its "interesting" people who travel frequently by ICE vehicles have not significantly changed their short-term plans to go motoring this year.

I'm paying just about $1/gallon more in the past month but being in a 100% mobile service business I have little to no choice. Planning or combining trips is one thing I've always done which is more of a time-saving thing with me. It's not always possible to do with maximum results but it does help over the longer term.

If I traveled for leisure I'm not sure how I'd feel, assuming the income supported the extra expense I would probably just pay it BUT complain more too.

[TomsBeast]

Originally Posted by MarinBlaine

Unrelated to all of this, I think peak #vanlife is behind us and over time these people will start to liquidate these assets. There should be some nice deals in the years ahead.

In my view, rig prices went up because the COVID lockdown had people wanting a 'plan B' in case they reeeeeally needed to bug out of urban centers, and 'working remotely' meant off the beaten path extended vacations were now more attractive than ever. If that's true, take away covid fears, less work from home, add a spike in fuel prices to the mix, and rig prices should go down. But there's so many other things that should effect that market, it's anyone's guess.


Like a convertible (car), the highest prices on RV's are always in spring, right around Memorial day. The best are typically in fall. I don't see that trend changing. But $10/gallon fuel and double digit inflation would overshadow any of that, and turn it into a buyers market with a lot of deals.

Originally Posted by MarinBlaine

If you are in the market for a van, go get one, life is short. There are only so many summers left for all of us!

There you go, good advice. Unless of course, you view buying a sportsmobile as 'an investment', then you probably missed the boat. Probably.

[HIGHCOUNTRYMIKE]

I have a lot of "agrees" and a lot of "disagrees". The gas issue is just as simple as it's my gas and I can charge what I want. They will have you believe it's the "war" or maintenance at one of our (socal) local refineries. They charge higher rates because they can. In my city my electrical, water and natural gas prices are all regulated in someway. Those entities have to ask for a rate increase. I have 2 son-in-laws who work at refineries. There is no shortage of crude oil. Much of it comes from local drilling and not subject to OPEC. During much of the last administration we were oil independent. So the reality is we have again shot ourself in the foot. I am a SMB van owner and have no plans to change my plans for the coming months. As MarinBlaine said how many more summers are you going to have. jrobe van people are not going to change because of the pump price. I would like to add: that in addition to the increased number of "new" van people there were and equal and probably larger number of tent campers. People who had never camped before...some will continue with their new found pleasure. As will new van owners. If you were able to buy a new "Classic" SMB in the $150 to 170,000 you not be likely to discount that even if you found you are not a van lifer. They don't need the cash. I think we have become a knee-jerk reaction nation. Our reactions are very predictable and a result of not thinking.
As my friend Confucius once said: "He who learns but does not think, is lost. He who thinks but does not learn is in great danger." Could he have been thinking about US or the USA?
HIGHCOUNTRYMIKE 2003 E350 4X4 7.3 SMB 300,000