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03-18-2022, 06:20 AM
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#1
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 65
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Affect of gas prices, inflation, & interest rates for used SMBs & Class B RVs?
I'm curious if there is a consensus on this forum about what is likely going to happen to the asking / selling prices of used SMBs & Class B Rvs over the next 3, 6, and 12 months?
If the Russian / Ukrainian war drags on, gas prices remain high (or go higher), inflation & the prices of consumer staples increase, and interest rates climb, will this likely result in decreased demand for pre-owned SMBs & Class B RVs, thus causing selling prices to be significantly reduced?
If you were a cash buyer in the market for a used SMB or Class B RV--AND if price was a factor in your buying decision--would you buy now, or sit on the sidelines with the expectation that over the next 3-6 months, selling prices will be significantly reduced?
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03-18-2022, 07:36 AM
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#2
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Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Marin County, CA
Posts: 114
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Unrelated to all of this, I think peak #vanlife is behind us and over time these people will start to liquidate these assets. There should be some nice deals in the years ahead. There are already more vans available than the last couple of years.
I think in 3 months it will be mid-summer and there won’t be any deals. If you are in the market for a van, go get one, life is short. There are only so many summers left for all of us!
__________________
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MarinBlaine
"MooseMobile"
2001 E250 5.4 EB50 Aero Hightop
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03-18-2022, 08:06 AM
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#3
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Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 129
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It is impossible to predict future markets but I doubt that there will be any huge changes in used Class B prices especially on the newer used models. Anyone that is buying an expensive luxury item like an RV probably isn't losing any sleep over higher gas prices or higher grocery prices. It is possible that with more people flocking to airports again after covid that there will be less RVing. There are also though more and more people retiring with our aging population and looking to travel with RV's. It wouldn't surprise me if prices drop some from their recent peaks but not to any huge degree that would make me wait if I really wanted to buy a new recreational toy.
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03-18-2022, 08:15 AM
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#4
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Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Golden, CO
Posts: 952
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Judging by how many families I see living out of RVs in their relative's driveway I don't see things changing to reduce the price or demand. These people can't afford or don't want to pay the outrageous rent prices right now. Rent shouldn't have gone up as interest has been down for so long. It was mostly profitting off high demand. Same goes for real estate. Current home owners love how much their "investment" has gained in value but new home buyers are screwed because, outside of silicon valley, no one's paycheck has risen at the rate of inflation in home prices. Plus the lack of supply in those starter homes is a serious issue.
People love to preach economics 101 but what we have now is super imbalanced and not just simply supply and demand.
So sure a toy like a RV might not be as much in demand soon but considering them as an actual home is going to continue to grow while this crazy inflation continues. So I forsee we are stuck with 100 to 200k vans because there aren't homes at this price without it being in an undesirable location.
Btw this blip in the interest rate is nothing. I'd love to see the feds do something like a 5% increase but they so obviously don't want to screw with the stock market that every near and currently retired person is counting on. That is their golden egg.
Gas price is a psychological issue. People panic over it and don't even understand the how's or why's. Meanwhile they barely noticed how ALL their expenses have gone up to a greater impact than at the pump.
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03-18-2022, 08:27 AM
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#5
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Site Team
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Southern New Mexico
Posts: 10,177
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I've seen some high-end rigs advertised on ExPo that a few months ago, would have sold very quickly, but instead are hanging around for sale a while, and some even lowering their asking prices. Are they bargains, hell no, but i think we're on a downward trend. I think prices and demand peaked because of the pandemic as people hunkered down, and then the "re-opening" of the country when more people started exploring again, but I think they fuel prices have stopped the upward trend and caused them to decline. How long they decline is anyone's guess.
Herb
__________________
SMB-less as of 02/04/2012. Our savings account is richer, but our adventures are poorer.
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03-18-2022, 09:04 AM
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#6
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Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: SE Washington
Posts: 1,023
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Either way, it's a bad idea to finance it. Hard to enjoy making payments on a parked rig...
__________________
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2009 E250 RB 5.4L "SilVan"
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03-18-2022, 11:29 AM
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#7
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: San Juans / 10000 Lakes
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarinBlaine
There are only so many summers left for all of us!
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I'm just under 40 and full timing. A lot of my peers I've talked with out here this year all have in the back of our mind that when we're 55 we won't be allowed to buy fuel for these rigs and that electric 4x4 RVs are a pipe dream.
__________________
1998 E350 7.3 Hightop
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03-18-2022, 11:56 AM
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#8
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Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Golden, CO
Posts: 952
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Nevermind.
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03-18-2022, 12:01 PM
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#9
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: San Juans / 10000 Lakes
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simplesez
That's like the people who think electric vehicles are being "forced" on us.
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Did you see this news?
https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/grea...s-mandate-2035
More states are signing on for no new gas cars in 2035. Look what insurance companies are saying about electrification...
In 10 years insurance, fuel, and likely a new additional mileage tax (new because electric cars don't pay gas tax for road maintenance) for carbon fueled vehicles will be unaffordable.
__________________
1998 E350 7.3 Hightop
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03-18-2022, 12:20 PM
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#10
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Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Golden, CO
Posts: 952
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"unaffordable"
Just like houses?
Or do you mean more expensive? Just like just about everything besides computer chips and Arizona Ice Tea.
People are scared of government mandates I get it...but there are no signs that you can't drive a standard ICE vehicle for the rest of your life. Gas and diesel will get more expensive as it should. Maintenance on those ICE vehicles will get more expensive as it should. This is all normal for people who cherish old stuff including classic cars. The world shouldn't stop because people are afraid or don't adjust to change.
I work with homeless people often. I get the fears they are overwhelmed by. They wish they had a van to live in and could afford to live in a world that everything is getting more expensive. But they have next to nothing and for a few bucks a day they survive. If they have a vehicle most of their money goes to gas and they don't even do maintenance because a $100 an hour mechanic and the down time isn't going to happen.
Nevermind
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